Calculated Risk

Calculated Risks

Calculated Risks

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

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Product Details :

Genre : Social Science
Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
Release : 2015-11-10
Total Pages : 288 Pages
ISBN : 9781439127094


A Calculated Risk

A Calculated Risk

A female financial whiz plans the perfect bank heist in this “high-tech, high-stakes” thriller from the #1 international-bestselling author of The Eight (The Washington Post). Verity Banks is the one of the most powerful women in finance, but she still reports to a man. Her boss not only refuses to implement her security plan to safeguard customers’ deposits, he also sabotages her shot at becoming director of security at the Federal Reserve. Outraged, Verity decides to take revenge by hitting her boss where it will hurt the most: right in his company’s balance sheet. She is about to begin her assault when she hears from the last person she ever expected to see again, Zoltan Tor. A brilliant computer scientist who taught Verity everything she knows, Zoltan will help her if she agrees to an outlandish wager: Which of them can steal $1 billion, invest it to make $30 million in three months, and return it before anyone notices? Verity can use a computer; Zoltan will do it the old-fashioned way. To beat Zoltan at his own game, Verity will risk her fortune, her professional reputation—and her life. This ebook features an illustrated biography of Katherine Neville including rare images from her life and travels.

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Product Details :

Genre : Fiction
Author : Katherine Neville
Publisher : Open Road Media
Release : 2015-07-21
Total Pages : 401 Pages
ISBN : 9781504013680


Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk

Unlike other American astronauts, Virgil I. "Gus" Grissom never had the chance to publish his memoirs—save for an account of his role in the Gemini program—before the tragic launch pad fire on January 27, 1967, which took his life and those of Edward White and Roger Chaffee. The international prestige of winning the Moon Race cannot be understated, and Grissom played a pivotal and enduring role in securing that legacy for the United States. Indeed, Grissom was first and foremost a Cold Warrior, a member of the first group of Mercury astronauts whose goal it was to beat the Soviet Union to the moon. Drawing on extensive interviews with fellow astronauts, NASA engineers, family members, and friends of Gus Grissom, George Leopold delivers a comprehensive survey of Grissom’s life that places his career in the context of the Cold War and the history of human spaceflight. Calculated Risk: The Supersonic Life and Times of Gus Grissom adds significantly to our understanding of that tumultuous period in American history. --Publisher

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Product Details :

Genre : Biography & Autobiography
Author : George Leopold
Publisher : Purdue University Press
Release : 2016
Total Pages : 378 Pages
ISBN : 9781557537454


Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk

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Genre :
Author :
Publisher :
Release : 1960
Total Pages : 191 Pages
ISBN : OCLC:1078459155


Calculated Risks

Calculated Risks

Safeguarding economic prosperity, whilst protecting human health and the environment, is at the forefront of scientific and public interest. This book provides a practical and balanced view on toxicology, control, risk assessment and risk management, addressing the interplay between science and public health policy. This revised edition provides a detailed analysis on chemical and by-product exposure, how they enter the body and the suitability of imposed safety limits. Chapters on dose, with particular emphasis on children and vulnerable subpopulations, reproductive and developmental toxicants and toxicity testing are included. With updated and comprehensive coverage of international developments of risk management and safety, this will have broad appeal to researchers and professionals involved in chemical safety and regulation as well as the general reader interested in environmental pollution and public health.

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Product Details :

Genre : Science
Author : Joseph V. Rodricks
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Release : 2006-11-23
Total Pages : 358 Pages
ISBN : 9781139459518


A Calculated Risk

A Calculated Risk

Prepare for edge-of-your-seat suspense in this Thriller Short. Originally published in THRILLER 2 (2009), edited by #1 New York Times bestselling author Clive Cussler. In this Thriller Short, bestselling author Sean Chercover displays his knowledge of the sea, diving and illegal trafficking. Two men with shady backgrounds come together on a fishing boat in the middle of the Caribbean. One of them is Tom Bailey, a mysterious people smuggler, The other—operating under the alias Diego—is willing to pay Bailey generously to carry out a job that Diego will not discuss. Thankfully for Diego, Bailey wants to retire from his illegal ways and go straight, and this job will nudge him closer to his goal. But things don’t go as planned for either man. Risks must be taken. Sometimes they pay off. Other times…not so much. Don’t miss any of these exciting stories from Thriller 2: The Weapon by Jeffery Deaver Remaking by Blake Crouch Iced by Harry Hunsicker Justice Served by Mariah Stewart The Circle by David Hewson Roomful of Witnesses by R.L. Stine The House on Pine Terrace by Phillip Margolin The Desert Here and the Desert Far Away by Marcus Sakey On the Run by Carla Neggers Can You Help Me Out Here? by Robert Ferrigno Crossed Double by Joe Hartlaub The Lamented by Lawrence Light Vintage Death by Lisa Jackson Suspension of Disbelief by Tim Maleeny A Calculated Risk by Sean Chercover The Fifth World by Javier Sierra Ghost Writer by Gary Braver Through a Veil Darkly by Kathleen Antrim Bedtime for Mr. Li by David J. Montgomery Protecting the Innocent by Simon Wood Watch Out for My Girl by Joan Johnston Killing Time by Jon Land Boldt’s Broken Angel by Ridley Pearson

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Product Details :

Genre : Fiction
Author : Sean Chercover
Publisher : MIRA
Release : 2018-01-01
Total Pages : 400 Pages
ISBN : 9781488094811


Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk

Famous for leading the Tokyo Raid, America's first strike against Japan in World War II, Jimmy Doolittle led a remarkable life as an American pilot. This firsthand account by his granddaughter reveals an extraordinary individual—a scientist with a doctorate in aeronautical engineering from MIT, an aviation pioneer who was the first to fly across the United States in less than 24 hours and the first to fly “blind” (using only his plane’s instruments), a barnstormer well known for aerobatics, a popular racing pilot who won every major air race at least once, recipient of both the Congressional Medal of Honor and Presidential Medal of Freedom, a four-star general, and commander of both the 8th, 12th and 15th Air Forces. This memoir provides insights into the public and private world of Jimmy Doolittle and his family and sheds light on the drives and motivation of one of America's most influential and ambitious aviators.

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Product Details :

Genre : Biography & Autobiography
Author : Jonna Doolittle Hoppes
Publisher : Santa Monica Press
Release : 2005-03-01
Total Pages : 334 Pages
ISBN : 9781595809155


Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk

When John Dunlop gives Judy Scott a lift to Glencoe on his motorbike, both are surprised when a relationship develops. But for John all passions must be relegated to the demands of the big climb.

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Product Details :

Genre :
Author : Dougal Haston
Publisher : Bton Wicks Publications
Release : 2006-03-20
Total Pages : 192 Pages
ISBN : 1898573662


Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk

She thought she was finally safe, But her past won’t let her go. Sheriff’s deputy Tanner Dempsey is just doing his job when he stops a shoplifter trying to steal diapers and formula. But something about this frightened young woman makes him want to do more. Bree Daniels is grateful for Tanner’s help, but there’s so much she can never tell him… The truth is dangerous to everyone she lets into her life—and could be lethal to Tanner.

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Product Details :

Genre : Fiction
Author : Janie Crouch
Publisher : Harlequin
Release : 2019-07-01
Total Pages : 256 Pages
ISBN : 9781488045936


Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk

Unlike other American astronauts, Virgil I. "Gus"Grissom never had the chance to publish his memoirs. Killed along with his crewin a launch pad fire on January 27, 1967, Grissom also lost his chance to walkon the moon and return to describe his journey. Others went in his place. Thestories of the moon walkers are familiar. Less appreciated are Grissom'scontributions. The international prestige of winning the Moon Race cannotbe understated, and Grissom played a pivotal and enduring role in securing thatlegacy for the United States. Indeed, Grissom was first and foremost a ColdWarrior, a member of the first group of Mercury astronauts whose goal it was tobeat the Soviet Union into space and eventually to the moon. Drawing on extensive interviews with fellow astronauts, NASAengineers, family members, and friends of Gus Grissom, George Leopold deliversa comprehensive and corrective account of Grissom's life that places his careerin the context of the Cold War and the history of human spaceflight. Calculated Risk: TheSupersonic Life and Times of Gus Grissom adds significantly to ourunderstanding of that tumultuous and ultimately triumphant period in American history.

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Product Details :

Genre : Biography & Autobiography
Author : George Leopold
Publisher : Purdue University Press
Release : 2016-06-15
Total Pages : 416 Pages
ISBN : 9781612494586